•U.S. service sector activity at record high – ISM
•U.S. yield curve steepens, after flattening on Friday
•US March ISM-New York Index 804.5,810.9 previous
• US ISM March NY Business Conditions 37.2%,35.5% previous
•US March Markit Composite PMI 59.7, 59.1 previous
•US March Services PMI 60.4,60.0 forecast, 59.8 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 69.4, 55.5 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 67.2,51.9 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 74.0, 71.8 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 57.2, 52.7 previous
•US Mar CB Employment Trends Index 102.40, 101.01 previous
•US Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 63.7, 59.0 forecast, 55.3 previous
•US Feb Factory Orders (MoM) -0.8%, -0.5%,2.6% previous
•US Feb Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) -0.8%, -0.7% previous
•US Feb Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -0.6%, 1.7% previous
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
•23:30 Japan Feb Household Spending (YoY) -5.3% forecast, -6.1% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb Overall wage income of employees -0.8% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb Overtime Pay (YoY) -6.60% previous
•23:30 Japan Feb Household Spending (MoM) 2.8% forecast, -7.3% previous
•23:30 Japan Average Cash Earnings (YoY) -0.8% previous
•03:30 New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q1) 95.1% previous
•03:30 New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1) -6% previous
•04:00 Australia March AIG Construction Index 57.4 previous
•04:30 Australia Services PMI 56.2 previous
•06:30 Australia ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 3.3% previous
Looking Ahead – Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Monday as stocks hit record highs, and as investors waited on the next catalyst to drive direction. The dollar has rebounded this year along with rising U.S. Treasury yields as investors bet on faster U.S. economic growth and higher inflation as the economy reopens after COVID-19-related business shutdowns. The greenback has generally risen at the same time as stocks gain. Investors are now watching to see if that relationship continues as it may indicate a shift in how the currency responds to improving risk appetite. The euro gained 0.29% to $1.1786. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1785(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1846 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1735(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against dollar on Monday as expectations for a vaccine-led economic recovery in the UK boosted sterling. Sterling is supported by UK’s rapid vaccine rollout one of the fastest in the world as well as relief at the start of the year that a no-deal Brexit had been avoided. Public opinion in Britain about the government’s handling of the pandemic has turned positive and companies are also more optimistic. At 20:22 GMT, the pound was up 0.63% percent against the dollar at $1.3904. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3881 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3953 (19th March high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3791 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3703 (61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar advanced against its broadly weaker U.S. counterpart on Monday as robust U.S. economic data bolstered investor sentiment and ahead of a potential reduction by the Bank of Canada of its bond purchases later this month. U.S. crude oil futures settled 4.6% lower at $58.65 a barrel, pressured by rising supply from OPEC+ and higher Iranian output, while the U.S. dollar gave back some recent gains against a basket of major currencies.The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.2521 to the greenback, having touched its strongest intraday level since March 22 at 1.2501. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2570(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2641 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2494 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2418(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Monday as the greenback retreated from recent gains. The greenback had rallied on Friday after data showed that the U.S. economy created the most jobs in seven months in March as more Americans got vaccinated and the government doled out additional pandemic relief money, marking the start of what could be the strongest economic performance this year in nearly four decades.Trading volumes were light on Monday, with many traders out for the easter holiday. Strong resistance can be seen at 110.89(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 111.00 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 109.95(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 109.59 (14DMA).
Most markets in Europe were closed for the Easter holiday.
U.S. stocks rallied on Monday, as a round of strong economic data on the labor market and services sector buoyed investor optimism for the economic reopening and a muted climb in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield kept inflation worries at bay.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.13 percent, S&P 500 closed higher by 1.44percent, Nasdaq closed upby 1.67 percent.
U.S. Treasury prices edged higher on Monday, pushing yields lower, as investors paused recent selling of government bonds and took profits from short positions, though the uptrend in rates remained intact following Friday’s blockbuster non-farm payrolls report.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was last down at 1.716%, from 1.72% on Friday. U.S. 30-year yield fell to 2.361%, from Friday’s 2.37%.
Gold prices eased on Monday as hopes for a swift economic recovery following strong U.S. jobs and services sector data bolstered gains on Wall Street, although a softer dollar limited the precious metal’s decline.
Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,727.64 per ounce as of 2:34 p.m EDT (1834 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled little changed at $1,728.80.
Oil fell more than $3 a barrel on Monday as rising supply from OPEC+ and higher Iranian output countered signs of a strong economic rebound in the United States.
Brent crude for June fell $3.08, or 4.8%, to $61.78 a barrel by 1:42 p.m. EDT (1742 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for May dropped $3.21, or 5.2%, to $58.24.