News

Europe Roundup: Euro dips against dollar as recovery concerns resurface, European stocks inches lower, Gold gains, Oil slips as Chinese lockdowns, U.S. unemployment data temper gains-January 15th,2021

Market Roundup

•Finnish Nov GDP (YoY) -0.4%, -1.9% previous

•UK GDP (MoM) -2.6%,0.4% previous

•UK Index of Services 3.7%,9.7% previous

•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 4.1%,10.2% previous

•UK Nov Industrial Production (MoM) -0.1%, 0.5% forecast, 1.3% previous

•UK Nov Trade Balance Non-EU -8.01B, -1.40B forecast, -4.54B previous

•UK Nov Trade Balance -16.01B, -10.18B forecast, -12.00B previous

•UK Nov Construction Output (MoM) 1.9%,0.5% forecast, 1.0% previous

•U.K. Nov Construction Output (YoY) -1.4%, -8.1% forecast, -7.5% previous

•U.K Nov Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.7%, 0.9% forecast, 1.7% previous

•U.K Nov Industrial Production (YoY) -4.7%,-4.2% forecast, -5.5% previous

•French CPI (YoY) 0.0%,0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous

•French Dec HICP (YoY) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous

•French Dec HICP (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous

•Spanish Dec HICP (MoM) 0.2%,0.1 forecast, 0.1% previous

•Spanish Dec HICP (YoY) -0.6%,-0.6% forecast, -0.8% previous

•EU Nov Trade Balance 25.8B, 26.0B forecast, 30.0B previous

•Greek Oct Unemployment Rate 16.7% , 16.1% previous

Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

•13:00 Russia Nov Trade Balance 6.44B previous

•13:30 US Dec Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous

•13:30 US Dec Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.1% forecast, -0.9% previous

•13:30 US Dec PPI (MoM )0.4% forecast ,0.1% previous

•13:30 US Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2% forecast , -1.1% previous

•13:30 US Jan NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 6.00 forecast , 4.90 previous

•13:30 US Dec PPI (YoY) 0.8% forecast , 0.8% previous

•13:30 US Dec Core PPI (YoY) 1.3% forecast , 1.4% previous

•13:30 US Dec Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) -0.8% previous

•13:30 US Dec Retail Control (MoM) 0.1% forecast , -0.5% previous

•13:30 US Dec Retail Sales (YoY) 4.10% previous

•14:15 US Dec Capacity Utilization Rate 73.6% forecast , 73.3% previous

•14:15 US Dec Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5% forecast , 0.4% previous

•14:15 US Dec Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.5% forecast , 0.8% previous

•14:15 US Dec Industrial Production (YoY) -5.50% previous

•14:15 US Nov Business Inventories (MoM) 0.5% forecast , 0.7% previous

•15:00 US Jan Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.50% previous

•15:00 US Nov Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% previous

•15:00 US Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment 80.0 forecast , 80.7 previous

•15:00 US Jan Michigan Inflation Expectations 2.5% previous

•15:00 US Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations 74.6 previous

•15:00 US Jan Michigan Current Conditions 90.0 previous

•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 267 previous

Looking Ahead – Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•No significant events

Fx Beat

EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as prospect of stricter lockdowns in France and Germany and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in China. Investor concerns over the prospects for a global economic recovery were raised after France strengthened its border controls and brought forward its night curfew by two hours to 6 p.m. for at least two weeks to try to slow the spread of coronavirus infections, while Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel called for “very fast action” to counter the spread of variants of the coronavirus. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2165 (5DMA ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2220 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2121 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2025 (61.8%fib).

GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar on Friday as fresh lockdowns and surging COVID-19 cases dampened hopes of a swift economic recovery. On the data front,the UK economy shrank by 2.6% in November, its first monthly fall in output since the depths of an initial COVID-19 lockdown in April, as new movement restrictions were imposed, but the drop was much lower than the average forecast. Sterling fell against a stronger dollar it last down 0.3% at $1.3645, but was still close to a 20-month high of $1.3712 touched in the previous session. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3687 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3759 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3610 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3548 (50%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar edged lower against the Swiss franc on Thursday as fresh U.S.-China tensions and a rise in COVID-19 infections in China increased demand for Swiss franc. The outgoing Trump administration ramped up tensions with China, imposing sanctions on Chinese officials and companies, including an investment ban on nine additional companies – moves China said it firmly opposes.Rising COVID-19 infections also hurt risk appetite, as daily cases in China hit their highest in more than 10 months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8890(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8921 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8868 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8844 (61.8%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Friday as rising COVID-19 cases in China reinforced investor concerns over the prospects for a global economic recovery. China has put millions of people in lockdown in response to new outbreaks of COVID-19 in the north and northeast, with Hebei province reporting the first new coronavirus death on the mainland since May last year.The dollar dipped 0.09% to 103.70 yen. Strong resistance can be seen at 103.87 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 104.18 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.60 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 103.33 (61.8%fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks were set to end a four-week winning streak on Friday with small losses, as the prospect of tighter lockdowns in Germany and France as well as new COVID-19 restrictions in China cut into optimism about a global economic recovery.

At (GMT 12:30 ),UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.87 percent, Germany’s Dax was down by 0.96 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.14 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Friday on fresh coronavirus-led lockdowns in Europe and on dovish policy cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,853.81 per ounce by 1059 GMT, putting it on course for a small weekly gain, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,853.80.

Oil prices fell on Friday as concerns about Chinese cities in lockdown due to coronavirus outbreaks tempered a rally driven by strong import data from the world’s biggest crude importer and U.S. plans for a large stimulus package.

Brent was down 93 cents, or 1.7%, at $55.49 by 0950 GMT, after gaining 0.6% on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 71 cents, or 1.3%, at $52.86 a barrel, having risen more than 1% the previous session.


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