News

America's Roundup: Dollar falls on trade deal outlook, Gold rebounds, Oil slips as concerns over U.S.-China trade talks drag on-Nov 20th,2019

Market Roundup

• Markets await Fed minutes due Wednesday

• Wall Street back off from record highs

• Russia Oct PPI (MoM) -0.2%,-0.3% previous     

• Russia Oct PPI (YoY) -4.9%,-1.2% previous         

• US Oct Building Permits 1.461M, 1.385M forecast, 1.391M previous

• US Oct Building Permits (MoM)  5.0%,0.0% forecast, -2.7% previous

• US Oct Housing Starts (MoM) 3.8%,-7.9% previous

• US Oct Housing Starts 1.314M, 1.320M  forecast, 1.266M previous

• Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -0.2%,-0.6% forecast, 0.8%  previous

• US Redbook (MoM) -0.3%, 0.1% previous

• US Redbook (YoY) 4.1%,5.0% previous

• New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 1.7% , 3.7% previous                                                                                                 Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)

• 23:50 Japan Oct Exports (YoY)  -7.6% forecast, -5.2% previous

• 23:50 Japan Oct Imports (YoY)  -16.0%,-1.5% previous

• 23:50 Japan Oct Trade Balance 301.0B, -124.8B previous               

• 01:30 China PBoC Interest Rate 4.20% forecasts, 4.20% previous

Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• 19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes          

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as investors awaited the release of the minutes of the U.S. central bank meeting at end-October when policymakers cut interest rates.  The Fed cut rates three times this year – in part to offset what it views as damage done by the tariff war. But after their meeting in October, policymakers decided not to opt for rate cuts unless the economy took a turn for the worse.  U.S. homebuilding rebounded in October and permits for future home construction jumped to a more than 12-year high, pointing to strength in the housing market amid lower mortgage rates. The euro was up 0.10 percent at $1.1082. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.092 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1443 (Ichimoku Cloud Top).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1041 (50 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against dollar on Tuesday, as  investors’ expectated the ruling Conservative Party will win a parliamentary majority in Britain’s election next month.. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have surged to an 18-point lead over the opposition Labour Party, according to an opinion poll published by market research company Kantar on TuesdayIf the Conservatives win a majority on Dec. 12, expectations are the House of Commons would approve the Brexit deal agreed with Brussels last month and Britain would exit the European Union on Jan. 31, ending three-and-a-half years of uncertainty. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2174 (9 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2203 (10 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2900 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2877 (20 DMA).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, holding near an earlier 11-day high as domestic factory sales fell less than expected and a speech loomed by a senior Bank of Canada official. Canadian factory sales decreased by 0.2% in September from August, hampered by partial shutdowns for maintenance at some refineries as well as the impact of a United Auto Workers strike in the U.S., data from Statistics Canada showed. Analysts had forecast a 0.6% decrease. At (1864 GMT), the Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3208 to the greenback  .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3291 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3400 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3165 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3100 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, but remained trapped within well-worn ranges before the release of minutes from the latest U.S. central bank meeting.At its end-October policy meeting, the Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year, and hedge funds have ramped up bearish bets versus the dollar in the last three weeks in anticipation of more greenback weakness. Waning hopes of a preliminary trade deal between the United States and China have also weighed on the dollar, knocking it from a one-month high tested last week. Strong resistance can be seen at 109.36(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 110.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.11 (Higher Bollinger Band), a break below could take the pair towards 107.71(100 DMA).

Equities Recap

European stocks reversed course to close lower in a choppy session on Tuesday as lack of clarity on the progress of trade talks between Washington and Beijing kept investors from making bold bets.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.35 percent.

The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated after touching record highs on Tuesday, hit by dour forecasts from retailers Home Depot and Kohl’s.

Dow Jones closed down by 0.30 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.06 percent, Nasdaq finished the down up by 0.41 percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. long-dated Treasury yields, which have fallen in five of the last six sessions,slipped again on Tuesday, with risk appetite weaker overall amid the persistent uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations.

In morning trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 1.798%, from 1.808% late on Monday.

 Yields on 30-year bonds also slid to two-week troughs of 2.27% and last changed hands at 2.274%, down from 2.293% Monday.

Commodities Recap

Gold on Tuesday pared losses to scale a one-week peak as Wall Street eased from record highs on U.S. political uncertainties and somber earnings, while markets awaited more cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Spot gold   inched up 0.2% to $1,473.09 per ounce as of 12:29 p.m. ET (1729 GMT) after touching its highest since Nov.

 Oil fell for a second day on Tuesday, dropping below $62 a barrel on limited progress towards resolving the U.S.-China trade dispute, higher than expected Norwegian oil output and forecasts of rising U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down 89 cents at $61.55 a barrel by 1433 GMT. It had reached $63.65   the highest since Sept. 24   on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 97 cents to $56.08.


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